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Roger Ferguson says there is a 50/50 chance data will allow the Fed to cut rates

The Federal Reserve’s decisions have a significant impact on the economy, and many experts closely analyze the data to predict their next moves. One such expert is former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson, who is now Vice Chairman of the Business Council and a contributor to NBC. In a recent interview, Ferguson shared his insights on how the Fed might react to the latest economic data.

Ferguson noted that while inflation has not increased, it also hasn’t decreased significantly. This could lead the Fed to maintain a status quo approach and wait for more data before making any major decisions. He emphasized the importance of seeing consistent progress in inflation moving towards the target of 2%.

When asked about the possibility of rate hikes, Ferguson expressed doubt that they would occur in the near future. He suggested that if inflation remains stable or slightly decreases, the Fed may consider raising rates. However, he emphasized that any decisions would be data-dependent and not driven by political factors.

Ferguson also discussed the performance of the equity markets, noting that certain tech companies driving indices higher could be a sign of economic vibrancy. He highlighted the resilience of the economy despite the Fed’s aggressive actions and predicted that equity valuations could continue to rise.

In conclusion, Ferguson emphasized the importance of data-driven decision-making by the Fed and the need to consider the unique economic conditions in the US compared to Europe. While rate cuts may be on the table, they will ultimately depend on how the data evolves in the coming months. As the economy continues to show strength, the Fed will carefully assess the situation before making any significant policy changes.

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